What approach do you use if you have only partial information but you want to learn more about a subject? In a recent article, I confronted this very problem. Despite knowing quite a bit about Gaulish settlements and distributions of artifacts, we still know relatively little about the beginnings of the wine industry. We know it was a drink for the elite. We know that Etruscans showed up with wine, and later Greeks showed up with wine. But we don’t know why Etruscan wine all but disappears rapidly within a few years. Is this simple economics (Greek wine being cheaper)? Is this simply that Etruscan wine tasted worse? It’s a question and a conundrum; it simply doesn’t make sense that everyone in the region would swap from one wine type to another. Also, the ceramic vessels that were used to carry the wine—amphorae—those are what we find. They should last for a while, but they disappear. Greek wine takes over, Greek amphorae take over, and Etruscan wine and amphorae disappear.
This is a perfect question for agent based modeling. My approach uses a very simple model of preference, coupled with some simple economics, to look at how Gauls could be drivers of the economy. Through parameter testing I show that a complete transition between two types of wine could occur even when less than 100% of the consumers ‘prefer’ one type.
Most importantly in this model, the pattern oriented approach shows how agent-based modeling can be useful for examining a mystery, even when the amount of information available might be small.
Check the article out on the open source MDPI website.